The Improbability Principle

In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but.

The Improbability Principle

Author: David J. Hand

Publisher: Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux

ISBN: 0374711399

Page: 288

View: 122

In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough. Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.

The Improbability Principle by David J Hand Summary

This book unpacks the science and statistics behind seemingly miraculous phenomena.

The Improbability Principle by David J  Hand  Summary

Author: QuickRead

Publisher: QuickRead.com

ISBN:

Page:

View: 395

Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The science behind miracles. Have you ever encountered something so striking that it made you say, “That’s a miracle!” Or perhaps you’ve experienced a phenomenon that makes you feel as though it’s too extraordinary to ever happen by chance. But the research of professor and statistician David J. Hand indicates that what we consider miraculous is actually both ordinary and easily predicted according to something called the improbability principle. This book unpacks the science and statistics behind seemingly miraculous phenomena.

Dark Data

In Dark Data, data expert David Hand takes us on a fascinating and enlightening journey into the world of the data we don't see.

Dark Data

Author: David J. Hand

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691198853

Page: 344

View: 127

A practical guide to making good decisions in a world of missing data In the era of big data, it is easy to imagine that we have all the information we need to make good decisions. But in fact the data we have are never complete, and may be only the tip of the iceberg. Just as much of the universe is composed of dark matter, invisible to us but nonetheless present, the universe of information is full of dark data that we overlook at our peril. In Dark Data, data expert David Hand takes us on a fascinating and enlightening journey into the world of the data we don't see. Dark Data explores the many ways in which we can be blind to missing data and how that can lead us to conclusions and actions that are mistaken, dangerous, or even disastrous. Examining a wealth of real-life examples, from the Challenger shuttle explosion to complex financial frauds, Hand gives us a practical taxonomy of the types of dark data that exist and the situations in which they can arise, so that we can learn to recognize and control for them. In doing so, he teaches us not only to be alert to the problems presented by the things we don’t know, but also shows how dark data can be used to our advantage, leading to greater understanding and better decisions. Today, we all make decisions using data. Dark Data shows us all how to reduce the risk of making bad ones.

From GDP to Sustainable Wellbeing

This book is about the function and use of official statistics.

From GDP to Sustainable Wellbeing

Author: Paul Allin

Publisher: Palgrave Pivot

ISBN: 9783030530846

Page: 144

View: 503

This book is about the function and use of official statistics. It welcomes the aspiration for official statistics to be an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society, serving the government, the economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation. The book identifies the political role of official statisticians, who decided what gets measured as well as how it is measured. While thousands of official statistics are published every year, and some are quoted by politicians, used by policy-makers or reported in the media, the authors observe that, in the main, official statistics do not feature much in everyday lives of people and businesses. The book concludes with suggestions for more that should be done, especially in the context of improving wellbeing and helping meet the worldwide set of sustainable development goals set for 2030.

A Practical Guide to Successful Construction Projects

52 Hand, The Improbability Principle, p. 64. 53 Hand, The Improbability Principle,
p. 65. 54 Hand, The Improbability Principle, p. 78. 55 Hand, The Improbability
Principle, p. 82. 56 Kendrick, Project Risk, p. 166. 57 Program evaluation and ...

A Practical Guide to Successful Construction Projects

Author: Arent van Wassenaer

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISBN: 1315470039

Page: 340

View: 390

Written by experienced and innovative projects lawyer Arent van Wassenaer, this book explains what the critical success factors are for construction projects to be completed on time, within everyone’s budget, to the right quality, with all stakeholders satisfied and without disputes. In so doing, van Wassenaer discusses how such projects could be structured, tendered for, executed and completed, and what legal and non-legal mechanisms are available to achieve success in construction projects. Using examples of real projects, A Practical Guide to Successful Construction Projects provides tools for those in leading and managerial positions within the construction industry to change – where necessary – their usual operational methods into methods which are aimed at achieving project success.

Measurement

In this very short introduction, David J. Hand explains the common mathematical framework underlying all measurement, and describes the concepts and methods fundamental to measurement in all its forms.

Measurement

Author: David J. Hand

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0198779569

Page: 144

View: 746

Measurement is a fundamental concept that underpins almost every aspect of the modern world. It is central to the sciences, social sciences, medicine, and economics, but it affects everyday life. We measure everything - from the distance of far-off galaxies to the temperature of the air, levels of risk, political majorities, taxes, blood pressure, IQ, and weight. The history of measurement goes back to the ancient world, and its story has been one of gradual standardization. Today there are different types of measurement, levels of accuracy, and systems of units, applied in different contexts. Measurement involves notions of variability, accuracy, reliability, and error, and challenges such as the measurement of extreme values. In this Very Short Introduction, David Hand explains the common mathematical framework underlying all measurement, the main approaches to measurement, and the challenges involved. Following a brief historical account of measurement, he discusses measurement as used in the physical sciences and engineering, the life sciences and medicine, the social and behavioural sciences, economics, business, and public policy. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

The Marshmallow Test

Improbability. Principle. David Hand If things are incredibly unlikely, how can they
happen so often? Eminent ... answers this question by weaving together the
various strands of probability into a unified explanation: the Improbability
Principle.

The Marshmallow Test

Author: Walter Mischel

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 1448154227

Page: 336

View: 776

WATERSTONES NON-FICTION BOOK OF THE MONTH A child is presented with a marshmallow and given a choice: Eat this one now, or wait and enjoy two later. What will she do? And what are the implications for her behaviour later in life? 'A book that can show you how to change your behaviour . . . explores human nature, neuroscience and genetics, enlivened by a sprinkling of anecdotes' Evening Standard 'A genial, optimistic book and a rather soothing read' The Sunday Times 'A brilliant book' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow Walter Mischel’s now iconic 'marshmallow test,' one of the most famous experiments in the history of psychology, proved that the ability to delay gratification is critical to living a successful and fulfilling life: self-control not only predicts higher marks in school, better social and cognitive functioning, and a greater sense of self-worth; it also helps us manage stress, pursue goals more effectively, and cope with painful emotions. But is willpower prewired, or can it be taught? In his groundbreaking new book, Dr. Mischel draws on decades of compelling research and life examples to explore the nature of willpower, identifying the cognitive skills and mental mechanisms that enable it and showing how these can be applied to challenges in everyday life--from weight control to quitting smoking, overcoming heartbreak, making major decisions, and planning for retirement. With profound implications for the choices we make in parenting, education, public policy and self-care, The Marshmallow Test will change the way we think about who we are and what we can be. And since, as Mischel argues, a life with too much self-control can be as unfulfilling as one with too little, this book will also teach you when it’s time to ring the bell and enjoy that marshmallow.

Foundations of Practical Gerontology

This is to call attention to the “ improbability principle , ” which I have discussed at
length in another publication . Fortunately , it is not used in the present volume ,
but it may be easily identified . It is simply making the exception the rule — to ...

Foundations of Practical Gerontology

Author: Rosamonde Ramsay Boyd

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page: 296

View: 745

Indian Journal of Gerontology

The improbability principle leads away from truth and understanding . " " Our
great regions , " Wiggins observes , " Maintain both differences and similarities
with considerable stability . Are the aged in Idaho deprived because they do not
have ...

Indian Journal of Gerontology

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page:

View: 853

A Treatise on Logic

The first principle of the Doctrine of Chances is , that the probability of an
uncertain event is represented by the number of chances favorable to its
occurrence , divided by the total number of chances whether favorable or
unfavorable . Thus , as ...

A Treatise on Logic

Author: Francis Bowen

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page: 450

View: 606

A Treatise on Logic Or the Laws Thought Comprising Both the Aristotelic and Hamiltonian Analyses of Logical Forms and Some Chapters of Applied Logic Francis Bowen

The first principle of the Doctrine of Chances is , that the probability of an
uncertain event is represented by the number of chances favorable to its
occurrence , divided by the total number of chances whether favorable or
unfavorable . Thus , as ...

A Treatise on Logic Or the Laws Thought Comprising Both the Aristotelic and Hamiltonian Analyses of Logical Forms and Some Chapters of Applied Logic Francis Bowen

Author: Francis Bowen

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page: 450

View: 131

A TREATISE ON LOGIC THE LAWS OF PURE THOUGHT

The first- principle of the Doctrine of Chances is, that the probability of an
uncertain event is represented by the number of chances favorable to its
occurrence, divided by the total number of chances whether favorable or
unfavorable. Thus, as ...

A TREATISE ON LOGIC  THE LAWS OF PURE THOUGHT

Author: FRANCIS BOWEN

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page:

View: 456

A Treatise on Logic

The first principle of the Doctrine of Chances is , that the probability of an
uncertain event is represented by the number of chances favorable to its
occurrence , divided by the total number of chances whether favorable or
unfavorable . Thus , as ...

A Treatise on Logic

Author: Francis Bowen

Publisher:

ISBN:

Page: 450

View: 278

Fermi S Paradox Cosmology and Life

10.4 General Considerations: The anthropic principle reflects the improbability of
life, with respect to the physical conditions within the universe. General features
and physical properties of the universe are discussed in chapter 2, and those ...

Fermi   S Paradox Cosmology and Life

Author: Michael Bodin

Publisher: Trafford Publishing

ISBN: 1490749209

Page: 328

View: 995

In a universe as large as this, it would be surprising if earth was the only inhabited planet. Everything we know about cosmology today, suggested that life should be common. Almost certainly some of that would be similar to ourselves, and would also probably be using radio technology in much the way that we do. We should be able to pick up these signals, with the powerful radio telescopes we have today, and the surprising thing is that after 50 years of continuous listening, we have not yet detected a single one. Fermis paradox relates to this finding, but in its original form, was posed as a question, as to why, in a universe such as this, we have no knowledge of the extraterrestrial life which should be common. Many answers have been proposed, none of them satisfactory, and this book looks at the changes which have taken place since Fermis day, both with respect to the origin and evolution of life, and the advancing trends in modern cosmology, to provide current information from which readers can form their own opinion. The author presents a personal view, which is hypothetical and speculative, but consistent with facts nonetheless.